A Solid Market for 2017

A Solid Market for 2017

For Manhattan residential real estate, how different will 2017 be from 2016? Last year the market was in transition as the pendulum swung away from sellers to favor buyers (especially for properties priced above $4M) and shifted even more to a preference for condos over co-ops, also continuing to highlight downtown as Manhattan’s hottest neighborhoods.

 

What We Talk About When We Talk About Ethics

What We Talk About When We Talk About Ethics

While the law is exacting and black and white, ethical dilemmas operate in the grey areas between right and wrong when there is a conflict of interest or a dilemma between values. As licensees of the state, we operate within the law; however, compliance is not the same as behaving ethically or doing the right thing. In fact there are numerous instances when the law is silent or permits what some might consider questionable. 

THE CHANGING CONDO LANDSCAPE

THE CHANGING CONDO LANDSCAPE

The single most significant factor that has affected NYC’s residential marketplace, even more than interest rates which have hovered at historic lows for the better part of eight years, is the explosion of condominium choices including ground up construction and prewar rental conversions. New developments have reshaped the face of New York’s housing supply.  

THE PROMISE OF HUDSON YARDS

THE PROMISE OF HUDSON YARDS

Called a “city within a city” by some and “the new heart of New York” by promoters, The Hudson Rail Yards Project will transform the far west side of Manhattan. Being built from the ground up by developers Related Companies and Oxford Properties Group of Canada over active rail yards they leased from the MTA, it will bring new choices to New Yorkers and global citizens for housing, commerce and culture.

CAN INTEREST RATES GO ANY LOWER?

CAN INTEREST RATES GO ANY LOWER?

August 4, 2016. We’re past the year’s halfway mark and well into the 3rd quarter of a year in transition. For most of 2016, buyers gained the negotiating edge, but while prices are holding, transaction volume and velocity are down. Interest rates have hovered at historic lows for the better part of 8 years, and as of this writing, we’re at an all time average low of 3.44% on a 30-year fixed product. Rates are expected to inch up nominally in December after the US presidential election, though the change, at least initially, is unlikely to make much of a difference in residential real estate.

IS NOW THE TIME TO BUY OR SELL?

IS NOW THE TIME TO BUY OR SELL?

I’ve been selling residential real estate for 35 years, and for the first time I hosted a business talk last week in my Living Room with a guest banker and an attorney. I had a script and an agenda, but we were an intimate group, and the setting was informal, so as I touched on the stats that impact the market, I encouraged Q & A from the buyers and sellers who had gathered. To set the stage for discussing whether now is the time to buy or sell, I offered an overview of current inventory, identified 3 distinct market segments, highlighted the rise of the condo product, and considered absorption rates.

 Special Invitation for  First Time Living Room Talk

Special Invitation for First Time Living Room Talk

IS NOW THE TIME TO BUY OR SELL?

 

Shirley Hackel, a 35 year real estate professional, invites you and a friend to her Living Room for cocktails and an intimate and informative discussion about Manhattan's changing real estate market. 

June 15th, 7-9 PM 

with Guest Experts Mark Wenitzky, VP Home Loans, Bank of America and Craig L. Price, Esq. Partner, Belkin Burden et al 

Limited Seating

 

I WOULD LIKE TO ATTEND

INDUSTRY TALKS

INDUSTRY TALKS

No matter where we are in the cycle of real estate’s ups and downs, it’s appropriate to consider where we’ve been, evaluate where we are and think about where we are going. This year nearly every industry event I attended focused on the market’s upper end, a subject that has captured the most press recently. Last week’s Annual NYC Real Estate Showcase + Forum hosted by The Real Deal opened with the question “What’s Ahead For Luxury?”

WILL BUYERS GAIN THE EDGE?

WILL BUYERS GAIN THE EDGE?

Manhattan’s residential real estate market has always been fluid, but increasingly it is becoming more multi-layered and segmented, with different price points moving in different directions. In the light of Q1 2016 stats which show average residential prices exceeding the $2M mark for the first time, it’s instructive to take a close look at inventory numbers and pending sales to see how they break out according to co-op versus condo purchases by price. Two important caveats are noteworthy when reviewing 2016 sales figures: for one thing, these averages are skewed by closings at high end new developments such as 432 Park Avenue and 150 Charles Street; secondly while sales records are an important part of history, it’s contracts signed that more accurately reflect the market moment since the closings for most new developments can follow contracts signed by as many as two years ago.

 

IS IT THE LAW OR YOUR MORAL COMPASS?

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IS IT THE LAW OR YOUR MORAL COMPASS?

Is it legal for an attorney to send out multiple contracts on the same property simultaneously? The answer is yes. Is it ethical? The answer depends on whether there’s full disclosure. In the same vein, is it lawful and ethical for an agent to represent more than one buyer in negotiations on the same property? Both queries are thorny and merit serious consideration.

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SOME SELLERS GET NO RESPECT

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SOME SELLERS GET NO RESPECT

The more things change, the more they remain the same. Ten years ago, I concluded in a column, “Some sellers get no respect.” Homeowners who set unrealistic values on their homes—who fail to heed conservative pricing advice from experienced agents—lose valuable time and ultimately money. That message is worth repeating, particularly in today’s climate where price drops abound and where activity has slowed.

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ANOTHER YEAR FOR THE SMART SELLER?

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ANOTHER YEAR FOR THE SMART SELLER?

Three years ago, several weeks into the start of 2013, I reflected on the Wall Street adage “As January goes, so goes the year.” At the time, impressive financial gains were scored with both the S&P 500 and the Dow which were up in the month of January 2013 by 5.05% and 5.77% respectively, signaling the best start to the year since 1987. In residential Manhattan real estate, January 2013 witnessed a jump of nearly 28% in signed contracts over January 2012 (2,888 vs. 2,265). Sofia Song, at the time StreetEasy’s Head of Research, called it “The Year of the Frustrated Buyer.” I termed it “The Year of the Smart Seller.”

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END OF THE YEAR MUSINGS

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END OF THE YEAR MUSINGS

 With the exception of well priced apartments under $2M which continue to attract multiple competitive bids and top sales dollars, price increases of Manhattan homes have abated. Sellers have relinquished their upper hand as buyers find more balanced footing in a market that seems to be heading back slowly to equilibrium. Throughout this year, new development options have come to market steadily yielding more than two and a half times as many choices for buyers than in 2014: approximately 6,500 units in 100 new buildings compared to roughly 2,500 units in 59 buildings last year. At the ultra high end, sales are stalled. In 2015, Manhattan’s residential real estate market shifted in more ways than one.

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THE ALLURE OF A MANHATTAN PENTHOUSE

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THE ALLURE OF A MANHATTAN PENTHOUSE

The allure of a penthouse or for that matter any apartment with a setback terrace is irresistible. A precious and highly coveted commodity, terrace ownership connotes a certain quality of life with bragging rights. To the urban dweller, outdoor space offers oases of air, light, sky and ultimately status. Outdoor space sells at a premium in New York City, and for the purchaser, caveat emptor reigns supreme. It’s critical for a buyer to understand the governing Proprietary Lease and House Rules which will vary from building to building and also to consult with an attorney regarding local ordinances and building codes as they relate to what can and cannot be done, placed or built on a terrace.

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MY DEAL OF THE YEAR

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MY DEAL OF THE YEAR

In 35 years, I’ve had my share of challenging transactions, but this one takes the most recent proverbial cake. I closed on the terraced penthouse in Carnegie Hill this summer, nearly two years after my first meeting with the estate’s executor. For the deal to happen, I needed to overcome at least three significant obstacles. First, the property’s interior had been reconfigured 35 years earlier by an abstract architect with distracting curved walls and pivoting room dividers and needed a total redo. Second the co-op board put up a series of roadblocks by questioning the legality of an upper level that had been annexed to the apartment by a former owner. The 17’x11’ addition with wet bar and bathroom sat directly beneath the building’s water tank and was accessed by a narrow spiral staircase in a corner of the Living Room. A 1992 House & Garden feature highlighted this “Tower Room,” a term I adopted in my marketing. Responsibility for the Penthouse’s wrap terraces was the third serious bane of a sale. 

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RENOVATING A NYC CO-OP AGAIN!

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RENOVATING A NYC CO-OP AGAIN!

I’m at the midpoint of my current co-op renovation, a total gut of a two bedroom apartment, and this is my 6th undertaking to date, not including my Westchester home which was a builder’s spec house that I finished. I’ve renovated the one bedroom units for my two children, altered our first family postwar on East 79th Street, then our seven room prewar on Central Park West, and 5 years ago I gutted a one bedroom pied a terre. Renovating a Manhattan co-op presents unique challenges and requires careful planning.

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DATA, DATA EVERYWHERE - BUT IS IT ENOUGH?

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DATA, DATA EVERYWHERE - BUT IS IT ENOUGH?

Our residential marketplace set new highs in 2Q2015. Reports from real estate brokerages are trumpeting similar though slightly differing stats, and news agencies have been buzzing with the story because everyone loves to talk and read about real estate. Record levels have been achieved in both average and median sales prices, inventory though up initially last quarter is still stalled at about 20% below the 10 year average—especially for properties under $2M, and trading volume is down. 

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BUYING AND SELLING AT THE SAME TIME

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BUYING AND SELLING AT THE SAME TIME

In the current market, do you sell first? Buy first? Or sell and buy at the same time? A lot depends on your financial situation and stamina for risk, disruption and chance.

If you sell first, as conservative traditionalists recommend, you’ll know precisely how much additional money you’ll have to spend, but it may take some time before you’re able to identify a suitable next home, so you may have to rent or move in with family in the interim. Don’t expect to be able to make your sale contingent on finding suitable housing.

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MOVING TIPS

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MOVING TIPS

Congratulations! You’ve signed a contract to purchase your next apartment, and you’re pretty confident the co-op board will approve your purchase. It’s not too soon to begin planning your actual move-out/move-in. Ranking high on life’s stress meter because it’s all about displacement and disruption, moving requires preparation, organization and perspective.

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MEASURE FOR MEASURE, OR NOT

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MEASURE FOR MEASURE, OR NOT

Standards for measuring NYC apartments would be a boon to the industry. It’s a subject I’ve broached before, and one that merits re-consideration. Without uniform guidelines, the challenge of computing accurate square footage in order to compare properties persists for agents and consumers alike. While price per square foot is only one of many factors that contribute to a property’s value, square footage has become the common denominator, if not the virtual currency in which real estate properties trade. And yet, because standards are not in place, calculating square footage remains inexact.

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