Q4 2023 Manhattan Market Report
Highlighting Last Quarter’s Prevailing Trends
If you have questions about your own property or local neighborhood, don't hesitate to reach out.
Here’s a summary of key points.
Shrinking supply and spiking mortgage interest rates drove Manhattan's residential real estate market during the fourth quarter of 2023.
Prices rose to the highest numbers seen since 2018 both for condos and co-ops, despite the fact that closed sales fell 10.2% year-over-year.
Even as rising interest rates negatively affected affordability, the extremely low supply of homes maintained upward pressure on prices.
New listings were down 1.7% year-over-year and 13.9% quarter-over-quarter.
Contract activity rose by 7.6% suggesting some positive momentum for 2024.
New developments moved quickly, helping to propel prices.
Approximately 40% of would-be sellers are locked into ultra-low rate mortgages and are staying put in their homes.
Mortgage interest rates started to come down last fall, and additional decreases are anticipated this year, so buyers will have greater access to capital and increased supply as sellers will be more inclined to list their homes.
The luxury price bracket for properties over $5M saw double-digit year-over-year growth of almost 30% for newly signed contracts, and twice as many ultra-luxury homes at $20M+ went into contract last quarter.
The $1-$3M range, which accounted for 40.4% of sales, was one of the best performing groups, with only 4.2% fewer transactions than Q4 last year.
The Upper West Side had 18.6% more contracts, the most growth of any submarket, followed by Midtown West with an increase of 16.4% year-over-year.
Downtown apartments were the most expensive at just under $3.76M on average, though total inventory in the area declined more than any submarket.
As interest rates rose, so did the percentage of all-cash buyers — who have played an increasingly important role in supporting demand and home prices.
If economic conditions continue to improve as currently forecast, both supply and demand should rise in 2024. We’re hoping for a stable economy, despite global wars and strife, with no wild surprises in the all-too polarizing upcoming election.