Contracts signed are always the best real time measure of market activity, and there’s been an encouraging uptick in signed contract volume since the start of 2024. As residential real estate regains strength, we’ll know soon enough whether Q4 2023 was the nadir of our post Covid market. Similarly, it will take a bit of time to see how buyers, sellers and agents adjust to recent changes and focus on buyer agency commissions.
Restaurant Week is upon us once more, as New York City's eateries unite for a culinary celebration. This winter for nearly three weeks beginning January 16th and ending February 4th, more than 550 restaurants are providing discounted rates and prix-fixe menus for breakfast, lunch or dinner. With prices starting at just $30, it's a carrot that's hard to resist. Explore some of this year's lineup.
Highlighting Last Quarter’s Prevailing Trends. If you have questions about your own property or local neighborhood, don't hesitate to reach out. Here’s a summary of key points along with some commentary:
New York City’s residential real estate market in 2023 was mostly about recalibration and resilience. Despite the year’s challenges posed by banking industry shakeups, spiking mortgage rates and uncertain global political and economic landscapes, the city's real estate sector remained stable. Near the start of the year in February, appraiser Jonathan Miller forecast that this year would be one of disappointment and predicted, “Sellers are not going to get the price[s] they wanted … and buyers aren't going to get meaningful discounts.” Following are a few noteworthy market dynamics.
As a real estate agent with more than 40 years of transactional experience, each year I represent as many buyers as I do sellers, and I’ve been extolling the benefits of buyer agency representation my entire career. It’s never made sense to me when buyers choose to be unrepresented — the financial and emotional stakes are just too high. The recent Sitzer | Burnett class action suit and October verdict provides reason once more to opine on the significant value buyer side agents bring to real estate transactions.
As Q3 2023 ends, it’s apparent that mortgage interest rates will stay higher longer than was expected. Nonetheless, the autumn real estate season is gaining momentum, and buyers are returning to the marketplace--some enthusiastically and others with a bit of lingering trepidation and caution. Over the course of my four-decade tenure selling luxury real estate, I have been fortunate to forge close alliances with scores of discerning buyers.
Twice a year, in winter and summer, New York City’s restaurants join together in a dining extravaganza. Restaurant Week now stretches nearly a full month. This Summer from July 24th through August 20th, more than 550 restaurants are participating, offering reduced prices and prix-fixe menus for breakfast, lunch or dinner and sometimes all three.
As we transition into the second half of 2023, a seasonal summer slowdown is upon us. The definite lull is dramatically different from the robust activity of the post pandemic summers of 2021 and 2022. Today’s sellers are frustrated by fewer showings, silent open houses, and no offers, not even low, embarrassing bids.
In New York, we’re back to pre-pandemic levels, having regained the acknowledged 8-12% drop in property pricing from 3 years ago. This year, we’ve managed to avert disasters, but it was a helluva roller coaster ride!
ChatGPT, or Generative Pre-trained Transformer . . . is a powerful tool which pushes the boundaries of what AI can do and makes advanced AI technologies accessible to different audiences and industries. . . . The new technology is stunning, stupendous and slightly scary.
It would be good if we could come together as an industry to make some changes to this process without having to legislate, blending the talents of experienced residential brokers and transactional attorneys along with the bet practices of managing agents and councels who represent co-ops. What say you?
Goodbye 2022. We are ready for 2023! We’ve lived through considerable challenges these last three years with inflation in the forefront running at a 40-year high, and Covid hangovers splicing into a variety of flu and mystery viruses.
In January, following a record setting 2021 post Covid recovery, I wrote that Manhattan real estate was poised for a strong 2022. Sales volume last year totaled $30B—6% greater than the previous record set in 2007. During the first half of this year, sales volume reached $15.6B, the highest half year mark in a decade.
In the last 30 days in the residential resale market, there’s been a steady rise in the number of price reductions. Listing supply has increased slightly, but that may ebb as we move further into the summer months. Contract activity has been relatively steady, despite the spreading uncertainty and unease created by a confluence of unmitigated factors, namely rising interest rates (up .75% yesterday with more hikes to come), the ongoing war in the Ukraine, out of control inflation and stock market volatility.
Are anxiety and uncertainty creeping into our marketplace this quarter with the current macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns?
The burst of new listings we were expecting to begin mid-January never materialized. As a matter of fact, the continuing low supply of properties is pretty significant. Here’s what we are seeing.
The Manhattan residential real estate market continued its upward trajectory at record levels in Q4.
Who would have thought that two years after Covid-19 emerged, the global pandemic would still be front and center in our lives? Along with virus mutations, uncertainty has returned as our status quo. Holiday parties have been scratched to minimize exposures; block-long lines surround test centers; a reopened Broadway is balancing frequent cancellations as actors or crew test positive; travelers fly double-masked.
Sometimes you need a velvet rope to foster demand and create buzz and exclusivity. Remember the red velvet barrier in front of Studio 54 in the late 70’s? How cool was it when the big burly bouncer out front nodded that you could enter and join the other disco party-goers? When applied to real estate sales, velvet rope marketing is about creating demand by limiting availability to achieve a premium price.
● As expected, after Labor Day and the Jewish holidays, a wave of new inventory appeared to the significant tune of 2,088 total new offerings across all product categories and price segments. Surprisingly however, supply dipped in the weeks following, and resale stock has become short again, frustrating buyers who were looking for more options and prompting multiple offers. New listings were down nearly 30% YOY in Q3, forcing buyers to act quickly and helping to drive sales.
With Labor Day and Rosh Hashanah coinciding on this year's calendar, it’s no surprise that the number of new offerings dropped last week, making 8 consecutive weeks of shrinking new inventory. What’s eye-popping is that 27 contracts over $4M were signed last week, with condos outselling co-ops by nearly 4:1. Even more surprising, the previous week from August 23-29 saw 23 luxury contracts inked with 5:1 condos to co-ops and 9 townhouses, the largest number of TH contracts since Donna Olshan began tracking this $4M+ market segment in 2006 and the strongest pre-Labor Day week since 2014. It was the sixth month in a row for record high contract activity.
August vacations may account for some of the market declines in inventory and contracts this month. With supply super scarce in outlying suburban markets, is it possible that Manhattan will mirror the shortages seen in Westchester, Connecticut and Long Island? As housing stock drifts lower each week this summer, the pressure is on for buyers who are competing for fewer properties.
Stats from the second quarter reaffirm Manhattan real estate’s amazing rebound. Following on the heels of a stellar Q1, surging pent-up demand and low interest rates continued to work in tandem to drive up the number of contracts signed. At this point, we have regained values that were lost to Covid discounts and, by and large, we are back to pre-pandemic pricing. It’s activity however, not pricing, that’s way up.
The resilience of the Manhattan residential real estate market was on full display in the first quarter. A new year, new administration, low interest rates, and multiple and more readily available vaccines restored hope. Covid changed the way buyers look for and value space. With pent-up demand, today’s purchasers seek units with outdoor space and private areas for home offices, working out and gathering safely.
New York is alive and getting better. The change is palpable. Establishments have been reopening for business gradually. Restaurants, gyms, museums and movie theaters along with pedestrian and car traffic have returned. Hotel and airline bookings are up. In-person classes at public high schools are resuming this week. Vaccines are more readily available. Those who have been immunized are expanding their social circles, albeit tentatively. Yankee Stadium and Citifield will host the start of the baseball season with 20% fan capacity. Tourists are trickling back. Federal stimulus coins are jingling. Days are getting longer and warmer. And the spring selling season is well underway for New York City’s residential real estate market.
Yesterday’s NY Times front page story “Possible Boom Post-Pandemic” recognizes an economic sea change. We are turning the pandemic corner, and for that we are grateful. Economists are predicting a supercharged rebound for the U.S. Days ago, in a February 18th report issued in Washington D.C., Fannie Mae Sr. VP and Chief Economist Doug Duncan predicted a 6.7% GDP increase this year, simultaneously cautioning that the same reasons for expansion might also push up inflation. “Growth,” he noted, “will accelerate sharply beginning in the second quarter.” The news bodes well for residential real estate in New York.
A new president was sworn into office this noon, and as the Times aptly reported, his “To-Do List” is daunting. Primary among his tasks, President Biden has pledged to oversee the vaccination of 100 million Americans in his first 100 days. In New York, we’re looking forward to when most are inoculated, and we gain herd immunity and can look back on this dreadful nearly year-long Covid period.
We’re two weeks away from the start of a new year, and despite an accelerating pandemic and the closing of indoor restaurant dining, here are ten reasons to be optimistic about the New York real estate market of 2021.
In uncertain times, when world events and macro outlooks are dire, there’s no better urban center to invest in than New York City. Our residential market is leveling to be sure, but we’re holding our own. In fact, there’s opportunity, and smart home shoppers are buying.
What are we seeing?