In New York, we’re back to pre-pandemic levels, having regained the acknowledged 8-12% drop in property pricing from 3 years ago. This year, we’ve managed to avert disasters, but it was a helluva roller coaster ride!
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In January, following a record setting 2021 post Covid recovery, I wrote that Manhattan real estate was poised for a strong 2022. Sales volume last year totaled $30B—6% greater than the previous record set in 2007. During the first half of this year, sales volume reached $15.6B, the highest half year mark in a decade.
In the last 30 days in the residential resale market, there’s been a steady rise in the number of price reductions. Listing supply has increased slightly, but that may ebb as we move further into the summer months. Contract activity has been relatively steady, despite the spreading uncertainty and unease created by a confluence of unmitigated factors, namely rising interest rates (up .75% yesterday with more hikes to come), the ongoing war in the Ukraine, out of control inflation and stock market volatility.
The burst of new listings we were expecting to begin mid-January never materialized. As a matter of fact, the continuing low supply of properties is pretty significant. Here’s what we are seeing.
The resilience of the Manhattan residential real estate market was on full display in the first quarter. A new year, new administration, low interest rates, and multiple and more readily available vaccines restored hope. Covid changed the way buyers look for and value space. With pent-up demand, today’s purchasers seek units with outdoor space and private areas for home offices, working out and gathering safely.
A new president was sworn into office this noon, and as the Times aptly reported, his “To-Do List” is daunting. Primary among his tasks, President Biden has pledged to oversee the vaccination of 100 million Americans in his first 100 days. In New York, we’re looking forward to when most are inoculated, and we gain herd immunity and can look back on this dreadful nearly year-long Covid period.
We’re two weeks away from the start of a new year, and despite an accelerating pandemic and the closing of indoor restaurant dining, here are ten reasons to be optimistic about the New York real estate market of 2021.
Manhattan real estate is recovering. Signed contracts and transaction volume are up. Especially encouraging is activity on the high end which saw 21 contracts signed over $4M in the last week of September—the highest since lockdown and the strongest final week of Q3 since 2014 when 33 contracts were signed (per the Olshan Report).
April 12, 2020 When you read the press coverage for Q1 2020, it’s critical to evaluate the stats with multiple grains of salt. We’re not in the midst of a real estate slowdown; in New York, we are near a standstill. Consider that this January’s sales were pretty close to January 2019 totals, and February 2020 volume was actually 10% higher this year, and the first week in March 2020 saw 8% more contracts signed year-over-year. Then came Covid-19.
Early spring’s daffodils are here, and we’ve shed our scarves and gloves, but we find ourselves in uncharted waters during an unprecedented season. A new virus is threatening our lives and our livelihoods as it spreads angst, anxiety and confusion. With an incubation period of 2-14 days according to the CDC, and with symptoms appearing about five days after infection, the novel virus unnerves and unsettles us. Human distancing seems to be the most effective tool against the spread of this contagious disease.
At the threshold of a new decade, we greet 2020 with enthusiasm and optimism. We’ll celebrate Martin Luther King Day on the 20th. Had the Reverend lived, we can only speculate how he would have joined with other clergy to counter the current wave of horrific antisemitic violence. To my Chinese friends who will be hosting two weeks of new year celebrations from January 25th to February 11th, I wish you huge blessings and good fortune in the Year of the Rat. May you smile often.
Neither winter’s frost nor shortened daylight hours can dampen end-of-the-year holiday parties, with the first Chanukah candle at sundown on the 21st, Christmas on the 25th and Kwanzaa on the 26th. With flutes of champagne and mugs of hot chocolate, we’ll bid goodbye to the last month of the decade to welcome 2020. Merry New Year one and all!
Is it already November? Don’t wait for the 13th for World Kindness Day or for the 28th to express gratitude. Do remember to turn your clocks back on the 3rd when Daylight Savings ends, do get out and vote for your local officials on the 5th, and honor military veterans on the 11th. In case you didn’t know, November 24th is Celebrate Your Unique Talent Day, so pull out your harmonica or stand on your head and rejoice in YOU! Happy Thanksgiving!
Autumn is my favorite time of year when the air is crisp but not yet cold, and the apples and pumpkins are ripe for picking. Our region’s fall colors will soon show bursts of red and golden yellows, so do take a drive north or a stroll through Central Park. It’s the month for Breast Cancer and Lupus Awareness. World Teachers Day is on the 5th and World Smile Day on the 7th. Watch out for friendly goblins on the 31st.
Today is National Skyscraper Day, so look up to marvel at the more than 7,000 architectural feats of engineering in our city—structures with 40 floors or more. This month, Labor Day came early, and the Jewish High Holy Days will be late with Rosh Hashanah on the eve of September 29th. Coinciding with the Hebrew month of Elul, it’s an important season for self-reflection. Lord knows we have much to consider and improve upon and build in our lives and in our nation. Autumn, my favorite time of year, begins on the 23rd.
And just like that the 2nd half of 2019 begins with summer in full swing. Local zucchini is in abundance and corn and tomato season lie ahead. Throw some shrimp on the barbie and celebrate the 4th with gratitude. As of July 1, NY State’s new progressive mansion tax goes into effect. A one-time payment at closing, the levy begins at 1% for transactions from $1M-$2M and rises incrementally in eight tiers, capping at 3.9% for sales of $25M or more. It could have been worse.
Take time to smell the roses and the honeysuckle this month. After all, it’s June and the days are longest, so there’s time for gardening, camping and tennis in this first month of summer. Take stock of your achievements as it’s also the end of the 2nd quarter and the midpoint of the year. Happy Father’s Day to all great Dads. Iced tea anyone?
With the start of the 2nd quarter comes the promise of warmer weather and increased sales activity. This month, we’ll celebrate with family and friends on Easter, Passover and Earth Day. Tax day is approaching quickly, and on the 19th, a Full Moon will be rising.